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SFCTA reviews final Prop L strategic plan; staff recommends reduced 30-year revenue forecast
Summary
Staff presented the final Prop L strategic plan update, proposing an 11% reduction in the 30-year revenue forecast and preserving first-5-year programming while scaling back out-year allocations; a motion to adopt was made but a recorded vote does not appear in the transcript provided.
Staff presented the final Prop L strategic plan update on April 8, describing how the voter-approved Prop L expenditure plan and accompanying five-year prioritization programs will be administered over a 30-year horizon.
Presenter Amelia Wally said the updated 30-year revenue forecast is about 11% lower than the baseline, producing a revised projection of roughly $1.95 billion over 30 years and translating to about $415 million a year in expenditure dollars under the staff model. Wally said the board preserved near-term programming adopted in five-year prioritization programs and recommended reductions to out-year programming beginning in year 6 to fit the lower revenue projection. "We reduce revenues by 11% over this 30 year period," Wally said during her presentation.
Specific preservation and adjustments cited by staff included holding the portal project’s programming at $300 million with some delayed cash flow to leverage anticipated federal grant funds, reducing BART core capacity programming from $90 million to $85 million with adjusted cash flow, and preserving paratransit programming at approximately $13 million per year with modestly delayed cash flows. Wally said debt assumptions remain largely unchanged and that adoption of the strategic plan does not itself authorize debt issuance.
Deputy Director Anna LaForte clarified that many high current expenditures reflected in the model are invoices carried over from the former Prop K grants and that the model assumes those cash flows. Director Chang added that the portal schedule had been pushed from an earlier target (around 2031) to a revised delivery target in the 2034–2035 timeframe.
Commissioner Mandelmann moved and Commissioner Dorsey seconded a motion to adopt the final Prop L strategic plan. The transcript shows a motion and a second but does not record a roll-call vote or its result.
Staff said the authority will update this plan again in 2027 as part of the regular five-year update cycle and will return with implementation details and any required financing approvals for separate board consideration.
