RCTC staff forecast stable Measure A and LTF but cut TUMF projection, approve $405,000 midyear adjustment
Summary
RCTC’s Budget & Implementation Committee approved midyear revenue projections that hold Measure A near $280 million and LTF near $150 million, reduced the TUMF forecast from $30 million to $23 million and approved a $405,000 professional-services budget amendment for regional conservation, reimbursed by RCA.
Riverside County Transportation Commission budget staff told the Budget & Implementation Committee on Jan. 26 that Measure A and the Local Transportation Fund (LTF) show stabilizing revenues while the Transportation Uniform Mitigation Fee (TUMF) has weakened, driven by a slowdown in new development.
“Measure A and LTF revenues are showing stable performance, while TUMF revenues are declining due to broader development trends,” Jennifer Fuller, RCTC deputy director of finance, said during a midyear revenue presentation. Fuller said the commission’s consultant expects sales-tax growth to normalize in 2027 but recommended conservative projections for the coming year.
Staff proposed holding Measure A near $280,000,000 and the LTF apportionment near $150,000,000 for fiscal year 2026–27. For TUMF, Fuller said only $7,400,000 had been collected through November 2025 — roughly 25% of the budgeted amount for that period — and recommended reducing the TUMF projection from $30,000,000 to $23,000,000.
The commission also considered a midyear expenditure amendment of $405,000 for the regional conservation department to cover rising professional-services costs. Fuller said the amendment will be funded from RCA (Regional Conservation Authority) resources and that RCTC will be reimbursed by RCA.
Committee members pressed staff on the reasons behind the TUMF shortfall. “TUMF is collected at the end of the development process, and it would be on more new builds,” Fuller said, adding that the RCA local development mitigation fee is showing a similar decline. James Stewart of Temecula directly asked whether the trend reflected fewer new builds or more repurposing; Fuller said the decline is tied to fewer new builds, with some RCA fees still applying for substantial reconstruction scenarios.
Aaron Hake, RCTC executive director, confirmed the presentation and said staff will continue to coordinate with program managers as they refine FY 2026–27 estimates; staff expect to return with updated figures during the May–June budget cycle. The committee voted to approve the midyear projections and the recommended budget adjustments for forwarding to the full commission.
The action taken: the committee approved items 7 and 8 as presented, including the revised TUMF projection and the $405,000 regional conservation expenditure adjustment. The staff report said the adjustment is offset by local reimbursement revenue and that monitoring will continue as additional receipts (including holiday sales tax payments) are posted.
