Iowa City and Johnson County hear plan estimating about 300 units of permanent supportive housing needed

Iowa City — Shelter House and national consultant Corporation for Supportive Housing (CSH) told city and county officials on Oct. 7 that a local needs assessment and three years of homeless-system data point to a preliminary gap of about 300 units of permanent supportive housing in Johnson County.

"Our estimates right now is around 300 units of supportive housing need tied to those households," Gabe Schuster, senior program manager at CSH, told the joint meeting. The consultants said about 260 of those units would serve individual adults and roughly 40 would serve families, after accounting for existing inventory, annual turnover and potential system efficiencies.

Why it matters: Permanent supportive housing (PSH) pairs long‑term, deeply affordable housing with voluntary, person‑centered support services for people with complex health and behavioral needs. Presenters argued PSH reduces emergency and criminal‑justice system use and improves housing stability, but stressed building and sustaining enough capacity will require multi‑jurisdictional coordination and new funding strategies.

What presenters showed - Definition and model: Amy Stetzel, CSH’s Upper Midwest director, described PSH as "deeply affordable housing connected to deep‑end services" and emphasized fidelity to standards (minimal barriers, voluntary engagement, integrated services). She noted PSH is not a time‑limited treatment program or a licensed care facility. - Local data: CSH said 1,093 unduplicated households had contact with the homeless system over three years; of those, about 220 were chronically homeless. The assessment uses those counts plus stakeholder input and inventory measures from HMIS to estimate need. - Utilization and case study: Schuster reported Shelter House‑administered PSH in Johnson County operates at about 90% utilization (versus an ~84% national average). Chrissy Canginelli of Shelter House reviewed a 36‑unit new‑construction project placed in service in 2022 (the "501" project), with total development costs of $7,570,000; a contractor estimated the same project would cost about $10,200,000 if built in 2026. - Operating budgets: Shelter House said the average per‑tenant annual operating and supportive‑services cost (excluding debt service) for the 36‑unit example is about $23,120, which the presenters said totals roughly $830,000 a year to operate and provide services for a 36‑unit building.

Funding risks and timing Presenters warned of near‑term funding cliffs. "As soon as July 2026, we will not have the resources to continue to maintain their housing and support services," Chrissy Canginelli said, citing imminent changes to sources that now support scattered‑site vouchers and services. She and CSH staff cited the possible loss of roughly $515,000 in July 2026 and another $265,000 in January 2027 for ongoing supports unless replacement funding is found.

Council questions and equity concerns Council members pressed for model assumptions behind the 300‑unit figure and asked how immigrants and families who do not appear in HMIS might be captured. CSH staff said the next phase of stakeholder conversations will more directly address culturally relevant access and local scoring practices. Members also asked about veterans’ underutilized units; presenters said utilization improved when case management was added and noted federal transitions (to VA case management) create timing challenges for VASH voucher holders.

Next steps and local coordination CSH proposed stakeholder planning conversations from October through December 2025, draft recommendations by March 2026 for local review, and a final plan with proposed investment strategies by June 2026. Officials agreed to place permanent supportive housing on the Oct. 20 joint entities meeting agenda and form a small committee (two city councilors and two county supervisors) to work with staff and Shelter House to finalize the Oct. 20 item.

Winter shelter and short‑term needs Shelter House said it can open a winter shelter as early as Nov. 17 if building availability and funding align. City staff noted the existing service agreement covers 15 weeks at a budgeted amount (reported generally as roughly $110,000) and that prorated extensions would increase the local share and create a funding gap that county partners, neighboring cities or private donors would need to fill.

What remains uncertain Presenters emphasized that the 300‑unit number is preliminary and depends on policy choices, design decisions and funding. They urged local jurisdictions to engage in the stakeholder process and to consider a mix of strategies — acquisition, master leasing, new construction, and creative financing — to meet need.

Procedural note County supervisors were recorded as dismissed from the joint meeting at 5:36 p.m.; city councilors and staff said they would circulate contract and budget details and reconvene to set committee membership and next meeting logistics.