Story County treasurer lowers expected investment returns, cites likely 2026 rate cuts

Treasurer Ted Rasmussen told county supervisors at a Jan. 28 work session that the treasurer’s office is revising its investment return forecasts downward after lower balances and recent interest‑rate movements.

“Our amended estimate is now going to be 1,650,000.00,” Rasmussen said as he reviewed the office’s three‑year averages and updated monthly estimates. He explained the reduction reflects both spending of ARPA funds that lowered the county’s rolling average balance and recent interest‑rate cuts.

Rasmussen also cited new guidance from IPAPE that the county has seen in recent meetings. “We are expecting at least 2, probably 3 rate cuts during the calendar year of 2026,” he said, and recommended reducing the fiscal‑year‑27 estimate from $1,300,000 to $1,200,000 to reflect yields likely nearer 2.5–2.75% by July 1.

The treasurer walked supervisors through how market changes affect bond valuations, noting the county reports bond holdings at market value per state auditor direction and typically holds bonds to maturity rather than trading them. He said the county’s bond portfolio is about $4,000,000 and that the monthly reassessment of market value shows how gains or losses can appear on paper even when bonds are held to maturity.

Budget supervisors and staff did not propose formal action at the work session; instead, they discussed reestimation of line items and agreed to revisit potential amendments later in the budget cycle.

Next steps: staff will include the revised investment return figures in upcoming budget documents and supervisors signaled they will review amendments or reestimations in April if needed.