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Carbondale funds wildfire‑risk modeling and data collection to target mitigation and evacuation planning
Summary
The town and partners will launch a home‑to‑home wildfire modeling and data collection effort using Dr. Hussam Mahmood's methodology; community surveys begin in late February, data collection through April/early May, early recommendations by September and fuller evacuation analysis by December.
Carbondale trustees heard a multi‑partner plan to map local wildfire risk and identify cost‑effective mitigation priorities using advanced, home‑to‑home wildfire modeling.
Angie Daven of the Wildfire Collaborative said the project will pair community data collection with modeling by Dr. Hussam Mahmood (Vanderbilt University) to identify the places where mitigation work yields the greatest reduction in home‑to‑home fire spread. "What Mahmood is an expert in is understanding home to home transmission," Angie said, describing past work in Marble and Snowmass Village and the model's ability to reveal mitigation opportunities not obvious from existing risk maps.
Carbondale Fire Chief Rob Goodwin emphasized local operational benefits, including better evacuation planning and the creation of a wildland fire division to support mitigation and response work. "We are standing up another division, wildland fire division, which, I'm really excited about," Chief Goodwin said, noting the district is hiring and increasing capacity for mitigation projects and assessments.
Project leaders said the collaborative will lead a two‑pronged outreach approach: an initial community mailer, social media and QR codes to drive resident survey completion, followed by targeted field data collection in April for addresses that do not self‑report. Angie said the project team is analyzing roughly 3,000 structures across Carbondale and surrounding populated areas and will start in the town core. "We'll wrap data collection by early May," she told trustees, adding that early recommendations could be available in about three months after data cleaning.
Trustees discussed funding and partnerships: the town has budgeted roughly $100,000 for the work and the fire district has contributed; presenters said they will seek grant matches and ask adjacent unincorporated areas or HOAs to contribute or assist with data collection to offset costs. Trustees and staff urged the team to lead with tangible deliverables such as evacuation plans and neighborhood‑level mitigation priorities to build community support.
Presenters acknowledged privacy and insurance concerns and said data would not be shared with insurers; they outlined a plan to provide residents with general risk messaging and to consider targeted assistance or cost‑match programs rather than publicizing individual house risk in a way that could be punitive.
Project leaders asked trustees for communication support through town channels and endorsed collaboration with homeowners associations and community groups to boost survey response and volunteer canvass efforts. Next steps include a public launch, QR‑enabled outreach in late February/early March and field data collection in April.
