Rising counts and VHFA analysis show large shortfall in homes affordable to very low‑income Vermonters
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Summary
Witnesses presented HUD and state data showing a decade‑long rise in homelessness (PIT and coordinated entry) and VHFA estimates that Vermont needs tens of thousands of additional homes, including about 11,000 affordable below 80% AMI; speakers linked housing shortage to increasing shelter demand.
State and provider data presented to the House Committee on Human Services showed an upward trend in homelessness and a large shortfall in homes affordable to low‑income Vermonters.
Chad Simmons (Housing and Homelessness Alliance of Vermont) summarized HUD‑required counts and the state housing needs assessment: Vermont's January point‑in‑time (PIT) counts rose from under 1,000 in 2018 to roughly 3,386–3,500 in the most recent published PIT, while coordinated entry data tracked about 4,500 people experiencing literal homelessness over the past year.
Simmons cited the five‑year Vermont Housing Needs Assessment and VHFA analysis used in the HUD consolidated plan, saying the state faces a combined need of roughly 24,000–36,000 additional homes to address growth, replace expected housing loss and cover homelessness needs; of those, nearly 11,000 units should be affordable to households under 80% Area Median Income (AMI), including the lowest‑income cohorts such as SSI/SSDI recipients.
Witnesses tied the shortage to affordability pressures and housing stock quality: Simmons said about 25,000 rental homes were built before 1940 and thousands more before 1950, raising concerns about health and habitability. He and other witnesses pointed to growing housing cost burden — roughly 30% of all Vermonters and nearly 50% of renters are cost‑burdened — and argued that permanent affordable housing and expanded voucher programs are critical to reducing shelter demand.
Providers described programmatic responses that have helped: the Housing Choice Voucher investments cited by witnesses reportedly housed roughly 1,900 people who had been experiencing homelessness in recent years; HOP investments and targeted rental assistance have also produced rehousing and prevention outcomes in counties such as Rutland.
Why it matters: testimony linked the housing shortfall and affordability crisis directly to increased shelter and motel reliance, and witnesses urged the committee to align any GA or shelter policy changes with measured housing development targets, operating financing and supportive services so that reductions in emergency motel placements do not outpace replacement capacity.
Next steps: the committee asked providers to deliver specific VHFA matrices, coordinated entry breakdowns and HUD NOFO details to inform markup scheduled next week.
