Arlington board approves conservative 5,338 FTE enrollment projection for 2026–27
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Summary
After staff presented low/medium/high enrollment scenarios, the board voted to adopt the low projection (5,338 FTE) to guide budgeting and staffing decisions for 2026–27, citing recent lower‑than‑expected enrollment and fiscal caution.
The Arlington School District board voted to adopt a conservative student enrollment projection of 5,338 full‑time equivalent students for the 2026–27 school year, a figure staff described as the low‑range projection for budgeting.
Brian Lewis, executive director of operations, told the board that an additional month of enrollment data led staff to recommend the low projection to avoid over‑allocating resources and to set conservative spending levels for next year. Lewis said the low projection reflects anticipated declines in kindergarten and middle‑grade cohorts while high school grades are expected to grow as larger classes advance.
Finance staff warned that lower enrollment affects state apportionment and cash flow; the district reported being about 77 students below budgeted enrollment in the most recent count. Board members and staff discussed the trade‑offs of estimating slightly lower to guard against shortfalls versus risking staffing shortages if actual student counts are higher.
Director Diamond moved and Director Kelly seconded the motion to approve the staff recommendation; the board approved the enrollment figure by roll call. District staff said they would continue to report monthly enrollment trends and that October counts typically provide the most accurate snapshot prior to the school year.
The projection will be used in budget planning and staffing calculations for the coming fiscal year; staff noted that adjustments remain possible as more data arrive.