Wenatchee district projects gradual enrollment decline; officials to refine forecasts in March

Sean Fitzgerald, the district’s executive director of business and finance, told the board Jan. 27 that enrollment — which drives roughly 75% of the district’s state apportionment funding — is projected to decline over the coming years and that stabilization is several years away.

Fitzgerald explained technical differences between FTE (full-time equivalent) and headcount and said the district uses FTE for budget purposes. Using October 2025 data, he cited a current FTE of about 381 and an October-based projection to finish at approximately 386 FTE — an increase of about five FTE compared with the prior methodology.

He described long-term trends tied to declining birth rates and capture rates that are expected to reduce enrollment for several years as larger classes graduate and are replaced by smaller kindergarten cohorts. Fitzgerald said his office will present further, more detailed analysis and that demographer Marcy Horner of MGT will present updated numbers on March 24.

Board members asked how waiting lists and out-of-district attendance factor into projections; Fitzgerald said those items are handled differently in the district’s headcount-versus-residency methodology and that some local principal reports (for example, wait lists) are not incorporated automatically into the model. He emphasized the forecasting approach is conservative and does not assume growth scenarios unless the district identifies specific initiatives to increase capture rates.

The presentation will be followed by additional enrollment analysis in June and August as the district updates budget-to-actual comparisons for the 2026–27 school year.