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Poll: Two‑thirds of likely unincorporated Mendocino County voters initially support a 1¢ roads sales tax
Summary
FM3 polling of ~660 likely unincorporated Mendocino County voters found initial support near 66% for a proposed 1¢, 20‑year transportation sales tax; support ranged 61–69% depending on framing and accountability provisions increased support.
A consultant presentation to the Mendocino Council of Governments reported broad initial support among likely unincorporated Mendocino County voters for a potential 1¢ sales tax to fund roads and related projects, but responses shifted when participants heard opposing arguments.
FM3 survey: methodology and topline: Lucia of FM3 told the board the firm contacted about 660 likely November 2026 voters in the unincorporated areas using a dual‑mode approach (phone and online) and set demographic quotas to match the likely electorate; the margin of error for the full sample is about 4%. The consultant reported initial support of roughly two‑thirds (66%) saying they would vote yes on the proposed 1¢ measure. When measured as "definite/probable yes" support was about 61%; support rose to about 69% after positive, explanatory statements and fell to about 61% after critical opposition statements were presented.
Priorities and accountability: Voters prioritized directly repairing and resurfacing local roads: 78% rated permanently resurfacing potholes as extremely or very important; roughly 70–75% prioritized prolonging road life, repairing major county roads and storm damage, and resurfacing local streets. Provisions that required funds to be spent locally and that mandated public disclosure and independent audits were especially persuasive: 68% said they would be much more likely to support the measure if it included local‑only spending requirements and public disclosure. FM3 also reported that concern about waste and government inefficiency was a prominent theme among those opposed.
Board questions and next steps: Board members asked detailed methodology questions — for example whether respondents were educated about differences among county, city and state road responsibilities (FM3 said they were not) and whether non‑English speakers were reached (FM3 said the survey was conducted in English only). Staff said the presentation materials and slide deck would be posted to the MCOG website and clarified that any formal ballot measure would require action by the Mendocino County Board of Supervisors.
Why it matters: MCOG staff told the board the county pavement condition index (PCI) reported in the packet is 46 (classified as poor) and that jurisdictions that adopted local transportation sales taxes in prior years saw measurable PCI improvements. The polling data suggest voters favor direct road repairs and strong accountability provisions; those preferences will shape communications and potential measure design if the county pursues a local ballot measure.
What’s next: Staff will post the FM3 slide deck to the MCOG packet and the Board of Supervisors would be the body to place any measure on a ballot if members choose to advance the idea.
