Mehlville projects modest enrollment growth toward 2030–31; district to monitor for facility planning
Summary
District demographers project total enrollment of about 9,747 by 2030–31, with middle‑school growth and near‑term high‑school declines; the board will receive annual updates to guide staffing and facilities planning.
Assistant Superintendent Dr. Jason Lander and Dr. Julie Durham presented enrollment and demographic projections to the Mehlville R‑IX board on Jan. 15. The demographers’ annual review showed a continuing trend with projected district enrollment increasing to approximately 9,747 students in the 2030–31 school year—about 180 students above current projections.
Dr. Durham said the district typically enrolls 72–76% of children born in its attendance area and that yearly live‑birth data are now incorporated into the annual projections. For 2030–31 the presentation projected K–5 enrollment of roughly 4,072–4,099 students, middle‑school enrollment near 2,292 (an increase of about 109 students or 5%), and a temporary decline at the high‑school level before a later uptick.
Board members discussed implications for staffing and facilities, including when another detailed demographer study would occur; Durham said the district will produce these projections annually to provide timelier snapshots. Trustees asked how housing and development could shift the trends; members noted that land availability and community age profiles could affect projections.
The presentation is intended to inform future staffing, space and boundary planning; no action was taken. Administration will continue monitoring live‑birth and enrollment data and return with updates.
