Chesterfield County budget office previews cautious FY27 forecast, flags early economic signals

County finance staff presented a cautious revenue outlook for fiscal 2027 and a timeline for the budget process, saying recent reassessment results improve the near-term revenue picture but broader indicators counsel prudence.

“Local residential real estate conditions continue to hold up pretty well,” said a county budget presenter summarizing the briefing that followed the reassessment presentation. He and other staff said the first six months of revenue are effectively more certain because of the reassessment, but that longer-term forecasts must account for economic headwinds.

Staff walked through multiple indicators the budget team watches: a year-over-year slowdown in local construction activity, a small decline in the number of employed county residents and a recent uptick in unemployment claims. The presentation also cited heavy-truck sales and equity-market valuation measures as leading indicators that suggest the county should avoid overly optimistic revenue assumptions.

The budget calendar previewed key public dates: staff said they are working toward a March 11 county administrator proposed budget deliverable and an April 8 potential adoption date. Departments have submitted operating and capital requests; budget staff said they are pursuing efficiencies and will meet one-on-one with key departments before recommendations are finalized.

Schools received particular attention. The county said the superintendent’s proposed schools budget includes about a 5% average increase in teacher pay, larger major-maintenance plans and continued execution of referendum projects. Staff said they are ‘‘very confident’’ in a $15 million state funding estimate that factors into schools’ planning, while acknowledging General Assembly action could change that figure.

Board members emphasized the county’s continued local support for schools. County staff noted that while direct transfers to schools are in the mid‑40s percent range of the local budget, a broader count that includes public safety and infrastructure results in roughly three-quarters of county spending dedicated to those core priorities.

Next steps: the budget office will refine revenue forecasts through February, present the administrator’s proposed budget in March and hold work sessions with the board and departments before final adoption deliberations in April.