Demographer warns Decatur District 61 faces accelerating enrollment decline, urges economic and facility strategies
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Summary
A demographer told the District 61 board the district has seen long-term student losses and accelerating declines—driven by falling birth rates, an aging population and rising private-school enrollment—and recommended partnerships with the city, boundary adjustments and incentive strategies to attract young families.
Preston Smith of Business Information Services told the Decatur Public Schools Board of Education on Jan. 27 that long-term enrollment trends point toward continued and accelerating decline, and urged the district to integrate the findings into Roadmap 2030 planning.
Smith, identified by Dr. Curry as the principal owner of the demography firm, said the district had about 12,000 students in 1990 and is now “pushing below 8,000,” with births down about 17% since 2020. He highlighted several factors he said compound the problem: an aging population, a sharp drop in births, increased private‑school enrollment (up 33% since 2019) and economic instability among renters that contributes to student churn.
“Your birth rates declined 17% since 2020,” Smith said, and “you've got an aging population” with a high share of single‑person households that will not generate new school enrollments. He also said two‑thirds of students live in houses valued under $100,000 and that districtwide building utilization is roughly 73 percent, leaving room for about 2,600 additional students under current capacity assumptions.
Smith described the district’s housing and economic profile in concrete terms: 54% of houses are valued under $100,000; 40% of renters pay more than 30% of income on rent and 20% pay more than half, factors he said that drive housing instability and student turnover. He projected that, under even optimistic models, the district will still have excess capacity by 2035 and urged facility optimization rather than immediate new construction.
Board members asked about tax rates and economic development. Smith said Decatur’s property tax burden did not appear “out of line” compared with other places he’s studied and recommended pursuing targeted economic and housing strategies with the city. As one practical suggestion, he proposed a relocation incentive—a subsidy of roughly $1,000–$2,000—to attract young families, citing examples of similar incentives in other states.
Dr. Curry told the board he expects the demography report to feed into Roadmap 2030 work. Smith offered to continue working with the district and said he would share additional data at no charge to help planning.
Next steps: the board will incorporate the demography findings into Roadmap 2030 discussions and may ask the demographer for follow‑up analyses of boundary options and facility optimization.