Investment advisers and local economist tell Washoe County commissioners national growth remains uncertain, housing key to local outlook
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Summary
County investment adviser Matt Bowden and regional economist Dr. Eugenia Larmore briefed commissioners on national uncertainty—Fed dots divergence, job-population dynamics and productivity—and regional housing and demographic changes that shape local revenue and service demand.
Washoe County commissioners heard back-to-back briefings Feb. 3 on the national and regional economy that county staff said will shape near-term budget choices.
Matt Bowden of Buckhead Capital (BCM Fixed Income), the county's investment adviser, described a national outlook of competing forces: dispersed Federal Open Market Committee views on where rates will land, an Atlanta Fed nowcast that showed surprising GDP strength in late 2025, and labor-market shifts driven by changing population dynamics. ‘‘There's a lot of risks on both sides of the ledger at this point,’’ Bowden said, describing the Fed's challenge to balance inflation and employment.
Bowden highlighted how productivity gains have driven recent GDP outcomes and noted uncertainty about how durable those gains are and whether they are AI-driven or reflect firms doing more with fewer resources. On inflation, he distinguished goods inflation (sensitive to tariffs) from services inflation, especially shelter. Bowden emphasized the lag in shelter measures feeding into CPI and said markets and the Fed currently expect a move to somewhat lower rates over the next few years. He concluded with the county portfolio's investment positioning (longer duration at select maturities and high-quality sectors) and reported calendar-year investment returns of nearly 6% and a recent quarter return of about 1.16%.
Dr. Eugenia Larmore, president of Reno-based EK Economic Consultants, translated national signals to Washoe County: migration has been a major driver of recent growth (Northern California was a major source), the county added roughly 5,000 people in a recent year and the demographic inflow skews younger (55% of recent movers aged 18-39 in 2024). Larmore said employment gains are concentrated in educational and health services and that the region faces a mixture of higher-wage job growth and continuing needs in leisure and hospitality. On housing, she said the county is adding multifamily rental supply (about 2,000 units in 2025) and that new-supply composition has shifted toward multifamily, which has helped stabilize rents but that overall affordability remains strained for many households.
Commissioners asked both presenters how national disinflation and shelter trends would hit the local CPI and housing costs. Bowden and Larmore both stressed regional variation; Bowden cautioned that the timing for shelter declines to show up in CPI is uncertain and that local incomes and supply constraints will shape when residents feel relief.
The presentations set context for the budget discussion that followed, with commissioners repeatedly linking housing affordability and the county's revenue base to choices about services and capital investments.
Source notes: Bowden credited Atlanta Fed GDP nowcasts and the FOMC dot plot for key charts; Larmore cited local employment and housing datasets, UNR regional research, and 2024-25 supply figures in her regional presentation.
