Richland 2 projects 1,492‑student enrollment drop, prepares staffing model to absorb up to $25 million
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Summary
District officials told the board they expect a net decline of 1,492 K‑12 students tied in part to new charter openings and other demographic shifts, and presented a three‑tier staffing model and attrition‑based approach intended to absorb up to $25 million in reduced state funding.
Richland School District Two officials told the board on Jan. 27 that the district projects a net K‑12 enrollment decline of 1,492 students for 2026–27 and is proposing revised student‑teacher staffing ratios and other district‑level reductions to protect its long‑term finances.
Doctor Foster outlined a three‑tier staffing model tied to school poverty levels and proposed ratios for 2026–27 (examples: kindergarten 22:1, 20:1 and 18.5:1 for lower, significant and higher poverty tiers; grades 1–3 at 21:1, 19:1 and 17.5:1). Planning and operations staff later said the combined effect of charter openings and demographic changes would produce a projected drop of 1,492 students and an estimated potential reduction of roughly $25,000,000 in state funding the district must plan to absorb.
Mister Anderson, director of planning, described the methodology used for projections as cohort/survival analysis combined with housing‑start and birth‑rate data and a 'charter school generation rate' based on proximity, demographics and historical choice patterns. He said charter projections came from information charter operators provided to the State Department of Education and that the district used business‑services estimates when modeling budget impact.
The board reviewed a simulation for a notional ‘‘Brilliant Elementary’’ (used to illustrate the model) that currently enrolls about 635 students; under planning projections that school’s enrollment was estimated to fall to about 531 students and staffing calculations showed corresponding FTE adjustments. Administrators said the district aims to rely largely on attrition, transfers and district‑level reductions rather than immediate layoffs, and to preserve planned employee step increases and a teacher salary increase if enrollment declines stay at or below projected levels.
Board members asked for more detail tying the projected student loss to dollar amounts at the school level; Mister Dennis and others urged legislative changes to the state funding formula. Administration said further refinement will continue during February staffing meetings and that final allocations must be ready for the board’s first meeting in April.