Comptroller tells Budget and Taxation Committee revenues roughly on track but forecasting risks remain

Annapolis — The Office of the Comptroller told the Budget and Taxation Committee that state revenues remain broadly in line with expectations but that near‑term forecasting faces heightened uncertainty.

"We collected more than 36,000,000,000 in revenue from various taxes and fees," the comptroller said in a committee briefing, listing personal and corporate income tax, sales and use, and other sources. The office said it serves more than 3.2 million individual taxpayers, issued about 2.7 million refunds last year and that roughly 440,000 people claimed the earned income tax credit.

Robert Rehman, director of the Bureau of Revenue Estimates, presented the December revenue forecast and described the change as ‘‘modest.’’ He said the board adjusted the fiscal‑2026 forecast upward slightly, driven by somewhat stronger personal income tax receipts and weaker sales and corporate income tax collections. "Revenues continue to be in line with our expectations in the midst of heightened uncertainty," Rehman said.

Committee members pressed staff on the sources of uncertainty. Rehman and the comptroller cited three drivers: delayed federal data releases tied to the recent federal shutdown, a slowing national economy and the timing effects of two major pieces of tax legislation (one federal, one state) that altered filer behavior and can push receipts toward the end of a fiscal year. The forecast team singled out capital‑gains reporting as a particularly lagged and error‑prone input that can cause revisions.

The comptroller emphasized the office's role as the state's chief revenue administrator and noted that the office is stepping up data‑sharing and analytical tools to assist lawmakers. The agency pointed to public dashboards — including a county‑level interactive dashboard and a Board of Public Works contracts dashboard created under recently enacted law — as part of that effort.

The briefing closed with an exchange about when the state will be able to quantify how many Maryland residents were affected by federal job losses; the comptroller said that detailed withholding and W‑2 data will not be available until calendar 2027 unless the federal government provides more granular employment‑by‑residence data earlier.

The committee moved on to another briefing after the presentation; no vote or formal action accompanied the forecast discussion.