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CBO director: reconciliation changes, tariff policy and demographic trends will raise uninsured and weigh on growth
Summary
CBO Director Phil Swagel told the House Budget Committee that the 2025 Reconciliation Act would raise the number of uninsured Americans by millions, tariffs increase prices and reduce GDP over time, and long‑term debt trajectories are unsustainable; CBO will publish a February update with 10‑year impacts.
Congressional Budget Office Director Phil Swagel told the House Budget Committee that CBO's analysis of recent legislation and policy shows large near‑term and long‑term fiscal and coverage consequences.
On coverage, Swagel said CBO projects the Medicaid-related provisions in the 2025 Reconciliation Act would increase the number of uninsured Americans by about 7.8 million. He also said expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits would raise the uninsured by about 4 million — together producing a sizable rise in the uninsured population over the coming years. "Our estimate was that the reconciliation…
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