Agency of Education: preliminary district budgets show smaller sample increase than December 1 projection
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Summary
Agency of Education staff told the Ways & Means Committee that 29 of 119 district budgets received to date suggest a 3.5% education-spending increase in the sample, below the December 1 projection of 5.8%; staff cautioned the sample is small and figures may change as more budgets arrive.
The Ways & Means Committee heard preliminary school-budget data on Jan. 27 from the Agency of Education, which said 29 of the state's 119 district budget records (about 24%) have been submitted so far and seven of those are still pending superintendent signature.
Kelly Murphy, education finance director at the Agency of Education, said the agency's provisional sample shows education spending rising about 3.5% compared with fiscal 2026, lower than the 5.8% increase reported in the December 1 letter. Murphy emphasized the sample's small size and described the estimate as an early indicator, not a final forecast: "Based on the small, and I want to stress small, sample set of 29, we're at about 3.5%, which is a good indicator, but it's very, very premature." She said the agency will update the numbers as more districts finalize budgets.
Murphy presented two summary tables: one with budgeted expenditures, offsetting revenues and education spending, and a second table that applied the sample's 3.5% average to the remaining districts as a simple projection (not a full forecast). She noted the sample shows expenditures up roughly 1.9% while offsetting revenues were lower, a combination that affects net education spending. Murphy offered to expand future tables to show the percent of total spending represented by the sample and other breakdowns staff and members requested.
Committee members pressed on statistical significance and district-level effects, noting that a modest statewide average can mask deeper cuts in specific local districts. One member asked how long-term weighted average daily membership (ADM) projections had changed; Murphy said the agency is projecting a decline consistent with the education forecast and will provide updated ADM figures in subsequent briefings. Members also requested more detail on districts that may be driving low or high spending per weighted pupil.
The committee did not take any formal votes on the yield bill at this meeting. Murphy said the agency will bring a fuller set of district budgets after the Feb. 15 submission deadline and will continue to present standardized reports to inform the committee's yield-bill decisions.