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Controller presents five‑year projection showing multi‑million shortfall; commissioners weigh cuts, reserves or tax increase
Summary
Controller presented a five‑year projection showing a near $6 million deficit for 2025 and continued declines through 2026; options discussed included using fund balance, making program cuts across departments, or pursuing a general tax increase (estimated ~5.9% to stabilize reserves).
The Budget Committee reviewed a five‑year projection on April 14 that showed a significant shortfall if current spending and revenue trends continue.
Controller explained the projection and assumptions: baseline revenue forecast near $91.6 million after a proposed $1 million reserve holdback; without additional revenue the county could face a near $6 million deficit in 2025 and continued drawdown in 2026. The controller highlighted a potential $600,000 downside if anticipated opioid recoupment revenue is not realized.
Staff outlined three broad options for closing the gap: (1) use fund balance to smooth the deficit, (2) require departmental cuts and allocation changes, or (3) raise taxes. The controller gave an example tax calculation and said a roughly 5.9% tax increase would "flatten the plane" in the projection and preserve reserves at a recommended target level. "I would recommend you not drop below 25," the controller said, referring to the fund balance target percentage.
Committee members and department directors discussed the tradeoffs. Several said they would prefer internal efficiency and allocation changes before asking taxpayers for more revenue; others warned that multiple jurisdictions increasing taxes concurrently could raise the total household burden. Staff recommended presenting the model to administrative officers and department directors first and conducting a public outreach process similar to the 2016 tax increase effort if commissioners pursue a rate change.
Next steps: staff will share the projection model with directors, prepare narratives and scenarios (including mixes of fund balance use and tax increases), and convene follow‑up meetings with administrative officers and commissioners.
