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County water official warns Colorado River talks may force federal decision if states miss NEPA deadline
Summary
A Division of Water Rights representative told the Emery County Public Lands Council negotiators floated a three‑year rolling average split for River flows, likely around 60–65% to the Lower Basin, and warned that failure to agree by October could leave the Bureau of Reclamation to pick an alternative through NEPA.
A representative from the Utah Division of Water Rights briefed the Emery County Public Lands Council on recent Colorado River Compact negotiations and the potential downstream implications for Lake Powell levels.
The representative summarized a concept circulating in talks: use a three‑year rolling average at Lees Ferry to determine releases, with a lower‑basin share discussed between roughly 55% and 70% and a likely compromise in the 60–65% range. He said the proposals included both a bottom cap (not less than 4.5 million acre‑feet to protect hydropower and fish passage) and a top cap that would require spill conditions to reach.
"This is the concept," the Division representative said, describing the three‑year average approach and the bottom cap. He warned that if the seven basin states cannot agree on a proposal that completes NEPA review by next October, the Bureau of Reclamation will run alternatives and select one for the basin — a step likely to prompt litigation.
The representative also noted that Lake Powell inflows this year are among the lowest since 2021 and cautioned that a three‑year averaging approach does not eliminate the risk of curtailments if storage is insufficient: "Just because we have a three‑year average doesn't mean we don't have to worry about curtailment," he said.
Next steps: County staff and water managers will continue to monitor Basin negotiations and the Bureau of Reclamation timeline; the council expects a more detailed presentation on local water statistics at the September meeting.
