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City staff lays out 25‑ and 50‑year growth horizons; proposes narrowing ETA footprint where urbanization unlikely
Summary
City staff presented a preliminary map and projections showing urban service (25 years) and urban reserve (25–50 years) areas, estimated acreage needs and recommended removing areas unlikely to urbanize in 50 years; commissioners requested fuller maps and scheduled further education on utility capital charges.
City planning staff briefed the Bismarck–Burley joint committee on a preliminary analysis of how much land the city may need to accommodate projected growth and how that projection affects ETA boundaries.
Daniel, the primary staff researcher, described two planning horizons used in the city’s comprehensive plan: an urban service area covering about 25 years and an urban reserve covering 25–50 years. Based on recent trends and assumptions about density, Daniel estimated the city may need roughly 32,700 additional acres to follow historical patterns and about 43,000 acres over 50 years. He said those numbers depend on density changes but used 1.2% annual population growth and roughly 1.4% annual acreage growth since 2000 as assumptions.
Daniel showed a draft map that identifies areas the city does not expect to urbanize within 50 years; applying those selection criteria to the ETA would, in the staff’s preliminary estimate, remove about 94% of homes currently in the ETA while retaining roughly 53% of the land that the city would likely need for future development. “If this were to be applied throughout the entire city and use those categories in our comprehensive plan, this would potentially remove about 94% of all of the homes from the ETA,” Daniel said, while noting the analysis is a work in progress.
Commissioners and staff probed the map’s details: questions included how to avoid creating small, isolated 'donut holes' of rural subdivisions surrounded by annexed land (staff said those configurations raise technical and political barriers), and whether some dense subdivisions (for example Imperial Valley) might remain candidates for later annexation if sewer or lagoon systems fail.
Next steps: staff will complete and share fuller maps and analysis ahead of the next combined city commission and county meeting (staff pulled a tentative date of Sept. 17 at 5 p.m.). Commissioners also asked that staff include an educational briefing on utility capital charges (the updated mechanism replacing prior 'fees held in abeyance') and to consider establishing a planning task force to analyze long‑range options.
