LCRA staff recommends tighter triggers, lower interruptible allocations in proposed 2032 plan

Water Operations Committee of the Board of Directors of the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) · January 30, 2026

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Summary

Staff presented a recommended update to LCRA's water management plan that would lower maximum interruptible allocations (normal to 125,000 acre-feet from 178,000), raise drought triggers, shorten extraordinary-drought duration and reduce some in‑stream and bay inflow caps; public comment remains open through Feb. 3 and LCRA will submit the application to TCEQ in March.

Monica Masters, LCRA staff, told the committee that the proposed 2032 water management plan updates hydrology through 2023 and projects firm demands to 2032. The staff recommendation is intended to meet the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) framework and to maintain a modeled minimum combined storage above the 600,000-acre-foot threshold required by the plan.

"The 2032 water management plan recommendation includes a minimum combined storage of about 640,000 acre-feet," Monica Masters said, summarizing model outputs after staff adjustments to allocations and triggers.

Key changes in the recommendation include:

- Under normal conditions, maximum interruptible stored water for ag is reduced to 125,000 acre-feet (from 178,000). - For less-severe drought, the trigger to enter that condition would be raised to 1,700,000 acre-feet (from 1,500,000) and the maximum allocation reduced to 96,000 acre-feet (previously 155,000 in staff discussion). - For extraordinary drought, the trigger would be raised to 1,500,000 acre-feet (from 1,300,000) and the drought‑duration criterion shortened to 14 months (from 18 months). - The 'any time' cut-off trigger would be raised to 1,100,000 acre-feet (from 1,000,000). - In-stream flow obligations at Columbus and Wharton would be reduced when combined storage drops below specified thresholds; monthly caps and percentages for Matagorda Bay inflows would also be reduced.

Monica said the unmodified model run using 2032 demands initially produced a minimum combined modeled storage of about 500,000 acre-feet, below the 600,000-acre-foot requirement; staff then adjusted allocations and triggers so the recommendation modeled a minimum combined storage near 640,000 acre-feet.

Staff emphasized the role of stakeholder input and TCEQ review in the update process. Monica noted public comment on the draft remains open through Feb. 3; with board action anticipated in February and an application to TCEQ planned for March so the update could be in place by the 2027 agricultural season.

Committee members asked technical questions about flood-irrigation return flows and how the model credits returns. Staff said return flows are difficult to quantify and that the Water Availability Model (WAM) was updated through 2023 and will be submitted to TCEQ for review as part of the plan update.