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Budget staff presents stress‑test; commissioners consider a $4M–$4.5M revenue plan and public outreach
Summary
In a lengthy June 30 discussion the committee reviewed a 2026 stress‑test scenario showing the county faces a multi‑million dollar spend‑down. Staff recommended a strategic revenue plan of about $4.0–4.5 million (which officials said equates roughly to a 10–11% change on the average $600,000 home) paired with public outreach, tighter departmental leanings, and a two‑year observation period.
Budget staff led a detailed stress‑test discussion on June 30 to show how several hypothetical revenue scenarios would affect Davis County’s fund balance and personnel costs for 2026. The exercise compared a modest revenue plan against larger not‑to‑exceed figures and emphasized that personnel costs (COLA, merit and market adjustments) drive most of the county’s recurring expenses.
Staff described a model in which a $4.5 million revenue plan would materially reduce a projected spend‑down and keep the county’s fund balance within a safer operating band. Staff cautioned the model did not include hypothetical COLA and merit adjustments and said, “If you don't increase revenues right now, then your spend down is so steep that you're going to have to take a significant tax increase that is going to be harder on the public.” The presentation repeatedly warned against an unmanaged spend‑down that would force a larger later increase.
Committee members pressed staff on mechanics and impacts. Officials noted the roughly $600,000 average home value used in county calculations and estimated a $4.5M not‑to‑exceed figure would translate to approximately a 10–11% change on the average property (staff summarized the conversion to a tax‑rate impact during the model walkthrough). Several commissioners said they favored using a not‑to‑exceed figure between $4M and $4.5M, conducting open houses and a public hearing in August, then completing the normal budget review while holding the rate for two years to observe turnback and other factors.
Members raised tradeoffs and constraints. Several speakers urged caution about flat‑lining pay increases because reduced raises can worsen turnover; others argued a larger revenue approach would preserve public safety and core services (justice, sheriff, corrections). Staff recommended a strategic path: adopt a public‑facing not‑to‑exceed revenue figure, host outreach events, then work with departments to trim and finalize a tentative budget within that envelope.
The discussion did not produce a formal tax ordinance or final vote but the meeting recorded a strong straw‑poll preference among several commissioners to work from a $4M–$4.5M framework and to pursue public outreach in advance of formal budget actions.
