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Independent analysts diverge on revenue outlook; warn ballot questions and capital‑gains volatility could reshape FY27
Summary
Independent analysts presented a range of forecasts—from conservative estimates to notably higher projections—and warned that capital‑gains volatility, the millionaires tax and ballot initiatives (including a proposed cut to the income tax) pose material risks to the FY2027 budget.
Independent witnesses gave competing forecasts and urged lawmakers to consider volatility and ballot risks as they set consensus revenue.
Doug Haugate of the Mass Taxpayers Foundation recommended conservative planning: his non‑surtax FY26 estimate was roughly $41.1 billion with surtax modeled separately and a cautious FY27 non‑surtax projection near $42 billion. He urged limiting use of the…
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