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Justin Wolfers: AI promises productivity gains but winners will depend on ownership and policy
Summary
University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers told revenue forecasters that AI can raise productivity substantially in firm‑level trials and may add to GDP over a decade, but outcomes depend sharply on market structure, ownership of AI capital and regulatory choices.
Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, told the CREC that while early experiments and company trials show striking productivity gains from AI, the macroeconomic and distributional outcomes are highly uncertain and depend on ownership and market structure.
Wolfers summarized randomized trials and field experiments in which AI tools reduced task completion times for coders (from 161 to 71 minutes in one trial) and raised productivity in office tasks (a cited 40% reduction in task time using ChatGPT in an experiment). In customer‑service applications, a chatbot assistant reduced resolution times…
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