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RSQE: Michigan faces modest growth, benchmark revisions and tax‑policy headwinds
Summary
University of Michigan economists told the CREC that Michigan shows slow payroll growth, falling labor force participation and revenue headwinds from recent tax changes; they flagged an expected benchmark revision to payroll counts and estimated policy shifts will reduce near‑term state revenues.
University of Michigan researchers presented a cautious Michigan outlook and explained implications for state revenue.
Gabe Ehrlich of RSQE said Michigan’s two employment measures (payroll jobs and resident employment) have diverged; recent preliminary benchmark estimates could remove much of the reported payroll job growth through March 2025, leaving only modest job gains in the short term. "March… it's gonna be about 900,000 jobs lower than currently reported" for the national adjustment framework, the presenters explained when discussing benchmark methodology, underscoring the risk to near‑term labor statistics.
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