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Michigan agencies adopt revised consensus revenue estimates, projecting modest growth and policy‑driven shifts
Summary
The January 2026 Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference adopted updated revenue and pupil membership estimates. Agencies project modest nominal revenue growth over 2026–28 but note policy changes (fuel tax exemption and other decoupling decisions) that lower net GF+SAF totals in FY26–27.
State fiscal leaders on Jan. 15 adopted updated revenue forecasts and K‑12 pupil membership estimates after presentations from university and agency economists.
The consensus proposal put FY2026 general‑purpose revenue at $14.1 billion and School Aid Fund receipts at $19.1 billion, a combined total the panel described as about $1.1 billion below the May projection after accounting for enacted policy changes and fund‑shifting: “we see revenue impacts that we’re building in here of about $800,000,000 in fiscal 26 and … $1,100,000,000 in fiscal 27,” Treasury staff said during the presentation.
Why it matters: the revised forecasts will be used as the baseline for the…
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