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Market and fiscal analysis: housing largely unaffordable to local incomes; commercial and industrial uses show net fiscal benefits
Summary
County staff reported that most recent housing supply is priced above local earning capacity, most residential prototypes are net fiscal negatives for the county, 2-acre rural lots were among the few net-positive residential types, and commercial/industrial prototypes are net fiscal positives; staff added data centers as a requested prototype.
County staff presented early results from a market analysis and a cost-of-land-use (fiscal impact) study intended to help the county evaluate land-use choices and fiscal implications.
Staff member (Speaker 2) said Partners for Economic Solutions' market work indicates that the majority of newly constructed housing in the county "is not being offered at a price that's attainable for people that earning comes locally right now." The market analysis also concluded that, absent major new commercial office tenants, the local office market has limited expansion potential, while the county may be a likely landing area for regional industrial and flex development if zoned land is made available.
On fiscal impacts, Speaker 2 described work with Tischler Bise to model prototype land uses across residential, commercial and industrial categories. According to staff, most non-age-restricted residential prototypes were shown to be net fiscal negatives — costing the county more in services (notably schools and public safety) than they return in real estate and personal property taxes. By contrast, commercial and industrial prototypes were modeled as net fiscal positives. Speaker 2 noted that 2-acre rural lots scored among the few net-positive residential prototypes, in part because of a higher assessed value per dwelling ("I think that the average was in the $600,000 home range for that use") and lower school-child household sizes.
Staff said they did not initially include data centers as a prototype but asked consultants to add that category because of ongoing local conversations; early indications rank data centers among the most net-positive uses on a per-1,000-square-foot basis.
Speaker 2 cautioned that the studies are still underway and that the county will request additional prototypes (including an agritourism/rural economy type) and provide full charts when the study is complete. "When the study is complete, we'll have a chart for you that shows the difference between these on 1,000 square foot percentage based on what we expect them to pay," Speaker 2 said.
Consultants are expected to present more complete findings early next year; staff said those outputs will inform conversations about zoning, urban development-area boundaries, and incentives to preserve farmland or encourage desired industries.
