DNR forecast: Alaska oil output to climb as Pika and Willow come online

The Department of Natural Resources told the Alaska House Finance Committee on Jan. 21 that the state’s fall 2025 oil production forecast projects a material increase in Alaska crude over the next decade, anchored by new projects on the North Slope.

"We're gonna see new production come online from Pika," DNR Division of Oil and Gas Director Derek Nottingham said at the start of the presentation, summing up the agency's view that several projects now have "boots on the ground" and are moving from concept to execution.

Travis Peltier, the petroleum reservoir engineer who leads the state's biannual production forecast, said the DNR’s mean annualized statewide forecast for fiscal year 2026 is about 464,500 barrels per day, with North Slope production at roughly 457,000 bpd. Peltier told the committee the long-term, mid-case projection rises to about 685,000 bpd by the end of the 10-year outlook. "Our internal forecast is around...465,000 barrels of oil per day," he said during the presentation.

New projects drive the increase. Peltier said Pika Phase 1 is more than 95% complete, with commissioning underway and first oil anticipated by the end of 2026. He estimated a peak rate for Pika Phase 1 of about 80,000 barrels per day, noting the rate will ramp up over time. For Willow, a ConocoPhillips project, Peltier said construction is more than 50% complete with first oil still expected in 2029 and an estimated peak rate of about 180,000 bpd.

Peltier explained how DNR builds the forecast: decline-curve analysis across roughly 41 North Slope pools and operator interviews, plus a screened set of 13 projects the agency risk-adjusts for scope, timing and probability. He showed DNR mid/low/high bands and compared them with Department of Revenue ranges and operators’ aggregated confidential forecasts; DNR’s mid case includes barrels from new fields, while operator-provided forecasts typically cover only currently producing fields.

The agency emphasized year-ahead accuracy. Peltier said DNR targets a +/-5% uncertainty band for the next fiscal year and noted that the FY2025 actuals were roughly 0.3% greater than last year’s forecast — an outcome he characterized as within the target range.

DNR staff also highlighted recent field performance that supports the forecast: Kuparuk River gains tied to new drilling programs and projects such as Coyote/KRU/Nuna Torok, a new Badami well (B133A) that outperformed the rest of that field, and a Milne Point revival under operator Hillcorp, which has increased production to roughly 50,900 bpd in November 2025 after polymer flooding and infill drilling.

Nottingham cautioned that uncertainty grows with time and that the forecast assumes operator plans remain static. "These things are becoming reality rather than concept at this point," he told lawmakers, but he and Peltier repeatedly noted the high/low cases on their charts are meant to capture project timing and success risks.

The committee was told the DNR will update the body in the spring; Peltier said a spring update is planned around mid‑March to reflect changes in operator plans and new data.

The presentation and numbers were delivered to the House Finance Committee by DNR staff and concluded without a committee vote.