Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the State Budget Forecast topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
JBC staff: state has leaned on one‑time federal and reserve funds; structural shortfall driven by ongoing obligations
Summary
Joint Budget Committee staff warned that Colorado's current budget relies heavily on one‑time federal funds (ARPA, enhanced FMAP) and large reserves built during the pandemic years, while ongoing obligations (notably Medicaid growth, school finance and corrections) now exceed ongoing revenues, producing a multi‑hundred‑million dollar structural shortfall.
Joint Budget Committee staff summarized the state's supplemental requests and the December revenue forecast and told members the state faces a structural gap driven primarily by rapid, ongoing spending growth (especially Medicaid) that outpaces ongoing revenues. Craig Harper said the December forecasts show a total gap of roughly $744 million in the current fiscal year between ongoing obligations and gross general fund revenues, and that the governor's supplemental package included about $146.6 million in midyear needs driven largely by Health Care Policy and Financing and Corrections.
Staff noted that the state has relied on one‑time resources — ARPA, enhanced FMAP roll‑forwards and large state education fund balances — to smooth near‑term pressures. Miss Bickel presented a follow‑up analysis tracing how roughly $8 billion of various one‑time revenues (ARPA, FMAP, State Ed Fund carryovers and other transfers) and multi‑year policy choices created room for some ongoing commitments. Bickel's memo argued that many smaller, otherwise reasonable ongoing decisions (provider rate increases, salary steps, and expanded programs) compounded to produce the current structural deficit and recommended disciplined use of one‑time funds and closer accounting of central service costs when drafting bills.
Harper and staff urged the committee to consider both cuts and revenue adjustments. Staff flagged the governor's request to use one‑time cash‑fund diversions and other transfers (including a proposed Pinnacle/PERA proposal in the governor's package) and recommended early drafting for a complex TABOR refund correction the administration proposed. The staff overview emphasized the uncertainty of the December forecast and the need to re‑assess in March; it also foreshadowed a stress test and five‑year outlook scheduled for figure setting.
What happens next: the committee continues supplemental deliberations and will receive additional caseload and revenue updates in mid‑January and February; staff will present a multi‑year stress test before figure setting to show the longer‑term impacts of supplemental decisions.
Provenance: testimony and slides from Craig Harper (JBC staff) and Miss Bickel summarizing historical one‑time fund use and program growth.
