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Independent review says JCPS forecast model gives useful short-term signals but lacks multi-year precision
Summary
Alvarez & Marsal told the Jefferson County Board of Education the district's forecast model offers directionally accurate near-term and cash-flow information but should be rebuilt with bottoms-up assumptions and better categorization to reliably guide multi-year policy decisions.
Consultants from Alvarez & Marsal presented an independent verification of Jefferson County Public Schools' multiyear forecast model at the board's Jan. 20 meeting, telling trustees the tool gives reliable short-term cash-flow information but lacks the granularity for precise multi-year budgeting and policy-making.
Noah Wettman, a senior director with the consulting firm, said the model "provides reliable information on how the fiscal year will end" and is directionally accurate for the next budget year, but that accuracy drops for FY28 and beyond without more detailed, bottoms-up assumptions. The consultants recommended (1) including "on-behalf" payments…
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