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Lincoln Way projects balanced budgets, flags capital funding as primary constraint
Summary
District presenters told the Lincoln Way CHSD 210 board the five-year financial forecast projects balanced operating budgets and an average annual surplus near $1.3 million, with a projected FY2030 operating fund balance just over $46.5 million (about 33.5% of expenditures); capital funding needs remain the primary constraint.
Dr. Dubek, who presented the district's five-year financial forecast, told the Board of Education on Oct. 17 that the district expects balanced operating budgets each year and an average five-year operating surplus of about $1.3 million.
"By fiscal year 2030, our operating fund balance is projected to increase $7,000,000," Dr. Dubek said during the presentation, and later projected the district would close FY2030 at "just over $46,500,000 and be at 33.5% fund balance." He said those fund balances must rise to remain at or above the board's policy target of roughly 33% of expenditures.
The forecast uses the FY25 operating revenues approved last month as a baseline and models changes in local property tax revenue, CPPRT fluctuations and evidence-based funding. Dr. Dubek noted CPPRT this year is about $900,000 versus a longer-term range closer to $600,000 and that the line has varied widely in recent years; he also described evidence-based funding (EBF) placement as a moving target that affects state support.
The presenter detailed several assumptions that drive the model: CPI and CPI-plus estimates for contract and utility costs, conservative new-construction estimates based on county preliminary data, and staffing projections that account for retirements and hiring. On new construction, he cited recent figures of $81 million in 2022, $61 million in 2023 and about $48 million so far in the current year and said the difference between years can materially affect revenues; for example, he estimated about a $465,000 revenue difference when comparing $53 million vs. $81 million in new construction.
Board members pressed for clarifications about CPI sensitivity, how the EBF tiers shift year to year, and whether new-construction figures include residential and commercial development; Dr. Dubek said the new-construction number is total taxable assessed value entering the rolls for the first time and that his modeling averages several credible forecasting sources.
He described the district's position as "stable but tight," noting capital-project prefunding (several summers at roughly $3.5 million per year) is the primary constraint on the five-year outlook. The board did not take further action on the forecast at the meeting; staff said they will use the model as the basis for the upcoming tax-levy and budget work.
The board is scheduled to receive additional budget and audit materials at the next meeting, when staff will present recommended levy numbers and any formal budget actions.
