Norman outlines plan to close projected 9‑MGD water shortfall by 2045

Cole Niblett, a presenter on the water master plan, told the City of Norman onstage that planning shows a potential water supply shortfall of roughly 9 million gallons per day by 2045. He said staff's near-term recommendation is to rely on additional Oklahoma City wholesale water and further develop the Garber-Wellington well field while preparing regulatory and rights pathways for indirect potable reuse (IPR) if needed.

City staff outlined the reasoning behind the projection: demand projections follow expected population growth, the plan builds in a reserve margin for drought and sudden commercial spikes, and an updated gap analysis under those assumptions shows the approximately 9 MGD shortfall. "Our gap analysis identifies a potential water supply gap of approximately 9 MGD by 2045," Niblett said during his presentation.

To cover near-term demand, staff emphasized available, implementable options. The Oklahoma City wholesale connection currently supplies about 1 MGD; staff said a contractual amendment and infrastructure adjustments could allow an additional 5 MGD in the short term. "With our existing OKC connection, we can go get an additional 5 MGD of supply, right now with no capital improvements," Niblett said, noting that pipe size limits current flow and that further upgrades would be needed for more capacity.

The plan also lists further expansion of the Garber-Wellington groundwater supply as a preferred near-term source if new wells require only disinfection. Presenters cautioned that additional groundwater development has limits: wells must be spaced to avoid well-field interference and some new wells could require extra treatment for naturally occurring contaminants such as arsenic or chromium. Staff said extensive test-well water-quality testing is standard before completing new wells.

Looking beyond those near-term steps, the master plan sets out a flexible, phased strategy for potable reuse. Niblett defined the reuse options discussed: indirect potable reuse (IPR), where advanced-treated effluent is placed in an environmental buffer such as a reservoir before conventional treatment, and direct potable reuse (DPR), which removes that environmental buffer and relies on engineered barriers and storage. He said the IPR option offers drought resilience but faces regulatory, water-rights and public-acceptance hurdles. "IPR uses an environmental buffer," Niblett said. "DPR removes the environmental buffer and relies on engineered storage and barriers."

Staff emphasized a diversified portfolio approach rather than reliance on a single source. Presenters said polling and a pilot program have shown some public acceptance for reuse concepts but that Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB), Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), member-city concurrence and possible legislative adjustments around lake water credits would be required to implement IPR at scale.

Niblett framed the recommended timeline as demand-driven: in the next five to seven years staff expect to lean on expanded wells and the OKC connection while pursuing permitting, legislative and interagency work to make reuse projects shovel-ready should demand continue to grow. The presentation closed with staff saying they will monitor Oklahoma City's published rate schedule (updated on a 3—60 month rolling basis) and contractual terms as they factor cost and independence into long-term planning.

The next procedural step identified by staff is to refine project phasing, complete test wells and pursue any necessary contractual amendments or regulatory work to maintain water system resilience as growth proceeds.