Consultant tells Saint Croix board long‑term in‑person enrollment likely to decline without major change
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Summary
A demographer presented cohort projections showing in‑person enrollment fell modestly over seven years and is likely to decline further, driven largely by lower births and a concentration of net inflow at the 4K→K transition; local housing was not included in the model and could change results.
Hazel, an enrollment consultant, told the Saint Croix School District board Jan. 28 that in‑person K–12 enrollment declined by 46 students over the past seven years and that resident enrollment fell by 98 students (6.6%). Her analysis, which excluded the district’s virtual charter academy, used 7–10‑year cohort projections and showed that the district’s future enrollment is most sensitive to the size and capture rate of the 4K and kindergarten pool.
Key findings Hazel highlighted: resident births and the pool for kindergarten have declined regionally and statewide; between 2009 and 2024 births fell about 16% in the state and roughly 10% in Saint Croix County; natural decrease (more students aging out than entering) has been the dominant driver and has increased since 2021; net migration has been positive recently but is concentrated in the 4K→K transition.
Using cohort survival methods and multiple kindergarten and migration assumptions, Hazel showed middle‑range projections that imply an ongoing downward drift in in‑person enrollment — roughly a 100‑student decline over ten years under central assumptions — though she cautioned there is a range of plausible outcomes depending on future births, district capture rates and housing growth.
Board members asked whether local housing developments (townhomes or a 300‑home project in Roberts) were included. Hazel said she did not include a local housing study in her model and that single‑family detached housing tends to yield more children than townhomes or mixed housing; she offered to review local development data if the board wanted an updated projection.
Hazel emphasized that the projections focused on in‑person enrollment and did not model the virtual charter academy’s contributions. She recommended attention to 4K capture strategies because the net inflow at that transition substantially affects long‑term enrollment.
The presentation will be included in the board packet for follow‑up. Administration and trustees noted the projection’s sensitivity to housing and 4K policy decisions as they consider program planning and staffing.
