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Consultant tells Saint Croix board long‑term in‑person enrollment likely to decline without major change
Summary
A demographer presented cohort projections showing in‑person enrollment fell modestly over seven years and is likely to decline further, driven largely by lower births and a concentration of net inflow at the 4K→K transition; local housing was not included in the model and could change results.
Hazel, an enrollment consultant, told the Saint Croix School District board Jan. 28 that in‑person K–12 enrollment declined by 46 students over the past seven years and that resident enrollment fell by 98 students (6.6%). Her analysis, which excluded the district’s virtual charter academy, used 7–10‑year cohort projections and showed that the district’s future enrollment is most sensitive to the size and capture rate of the 4K and kindergarten pool.
Key findings Hazel highlighted: resident births and the pool for…
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