La Canada Unified poll shows narrow path for $185M Prop 39 bond; board leans toward $30 per $100,000 for June

La Canada Unified School District trustees heard on Tuesday that a $185 million Prop 39 bond has a “qualified yes” path to passage but will likely require a lower tax rate and robust outreach to succeed.

Tim McLarney, president of True North Research, told the board the firm completed 466 interviews in late November–December 2025, producing a sampling margin of error of about ±4.4 percentage points. An initial ballot test of a $185 million bond at $50 per $100,000 of assessed value returned 58% support, McLarney said, noting, “I think the answer to that is a qualified yes. It’s a yes, but.” He cautioned that presenting the tax rate explicitly and exposing voters to negative arguments drove support down in later ballot tests to approximately 50%.

McLarney and Charles Heath of TeamCivics walked trustees through the study’s findings on voter priorities and price sensitivity. The poll showed improving the quality of education was the top community issue and that project categories such as career technical education, STEM facilities and basic repairs (roofs, plumbing, asbestos/lead remediation) drew broad support. But the $50 tax rate tested was outside many voters’ comfort zones; when the cost was framed as an annual dollar amount rather than a rate, support rose modestly.

Charles Heath and McLarney recommended lowering the proposed tax rate into the sub-$30 per $100,000 range to increase the chance of passage and advised investment in a targeted communications and grassroots mobilization effort. Heath said experience in the district’s past measures suggested a well-run campaign and careful pricing could improve results.

Several trustees pressed the consultants on why current poll numbers were lower than in prior bond elections. Consultants cited three factors: the 2017 measure was a bond extension (which tends to test higher), a change to ballot-language rules since then that tends to lower support, and current economic anxiety that increases voters’ price sensitivity. Board member Octavia said the research supported dialing down the rate and favored a compromise around $30 per $100,000; board member Dan echoed concerns about asking for more than the community is comfortable funding.

The board indicated a consensus to direct staff and consultants to prepare a resolution and work toward a bond priced near $30 per $100,000 for the June election cycle. Consultants said they would draft the resolution and the district will return the item for formal action at a future meeting. Public comment during the discussion included methodological questions from resident David Haxton about how June and November electorates were modeled.

Next steps: staff and consultants will draft a resolution and supporting materials for board consideration at the district’s next regularly scheduled meeting.