SFMTA outlines worst‑case plan: up to 20 routes cut, night service trimmed and thousands of layoffs if measures fail
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Summary
Staff warned that failure of one or both ballot measures could force deep service reductions (up to about 20 routes), earlier system closing hours, cuts to historic lines (cable cars, F line), and staff layoffs: about 700–900 positions if one measure fails and more than 2,000 if both fail.
SFMTA staff presented a contingency 'what‑if' plan detailing the operational and workforce consequences should the proposed regional and local revenue measures not be approved by voters.
Julie Kirschbaum (presenting the contingency scenarios) told the board the agency would first seek to avoid preemptive service cuts, but that staff must prepare immediately to implement rapid changes if election results are unfavorable. "If one or both of the measures don't pass, we would be looking at some pretty significant changes," she said.
Staff outlined a menu of options that would be deployed depending on the scale of revenue shortfall. Those options include cutting up to about 20 Muni routes (with wait times on core 'workhorse' routes potentially doubling), ending regular evening service around 9 p.m., and scaling back historic service such as cable cars and the F streetcar. The proposal also described staff reductions as the principal means to reduce costs: staff estimated 700–900 position reductions if one measure fails and over 2,000 if both fail; any reductions would follow meet‑and‑confer and civil‑service rules and be seniority‑based.
Staff emphasized implementation challenges: schedules must be rebuilt (a technical process requiring months for planning and scheduling teams) and rehiring or restoring services takes longer than suspending them. Julie Kirschbaum noted that losing experienced operators and maintenance staff makes future recovery slower and costlier.
The board and public questioned equity and geographic impacts. Staff committed to running a truncated outreach and equity analysis process after election results if cuts are necessary, and to seek board approval and required Board of Supervisors approvals for major route abandonments or fare changes.
What's next: staff will hold the contingency plans as operationally ready options and will not implement service reductions unless election results require them; the agency will run public outreach and an equity analysis quickly should the board direct service changes.