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U.S. Sentencing Commission data show wide range of prison and sentence impacts from proposed methamphetamine threshold changes
Summary
The U.S. Sentencing Commission published supplemental data estimating that four alternate methamphetamine quantity-threshold scenarios could change average sentences for meth cases from increases under 'actual' thresholds to substantial decreases under cocaine-level thresholds, and would alter Bureau of Prisons population projections; public comment closes Feb. 10, 2026.
Amy De Zember, a senior research associate in the Office of Research and Data at the United States Sentencing Commission, presented supplemental data on Jan. 8, 2026, analyzing how four alternate methamphetamine quantity-threshold options in a proposed amendment to the United States Sentencing Guidelines would affect average sentences and the Bureau of Prisons population. The Commission voted on Dec. 12, 2025, to publish proposed amendments and opened a public comment period that closes Feb. 10, 2026.
The presentation focused on Option 1 of Part A of the proposed amendment, which would remove references to "methamphetamine actual" from the Drug Quantity Table (U.S. Sentencing Guidelines §2D1.1(c)) and replace the current purity distinction with one of four bracketed quantity-threshold alternatives. De Zember said the analysis covers all federal drug-trafficking cases involving methamphetamine (8,513 individuals in the presentation) and compares outcomes under each threshold scenario.
Under a scenario that set…
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