Demographer warns Waxahachie ISD growth has slowed; 10‑year projections cut from bond-era estimates

The Waxahachie ISD board received a quarterly demographic report showing slower enrollment growth than earlier bond-era projections and uneven housing yields across the district.

The district’s demographer (Zonda data) told trustees that as of the report period the district was "steady" at roughly 11,158 students and that, for the first time in the presented series, the district recorded slightly more leavers than newcomers (a net delta of about 17 students). The presenter said national and regional housing markets have stabilized and that, while single‑family development remains substantial (the transcript cites roughly 21,000 planned single‑family lots within the district), student yield differs by subdivision — Saddle Brook Estates shows a higher yield (~0.484 students per house) than Ridge Crossing (~0.318) — and multifamily yield remains lower (~0.266).

Longer-term projections tied to the district’s planning have been revised downward from the 2022–23 bond-era forecasts. The demographer said previous bond-era forecasts had anticipated 17,000+ students by the early 2030s; updated mid‑range projections cited in the presentation are closer to about 14,800 students by the mid‑2030s, with an expected annual growth range of roughly 1–4% and a more likely band of 2–3% per year over the next decade.

Trustees asked how neighboring districts compare; the presenter replied that many Ellis County districts are experiencing similar stagnation or slight declines, and Region 10 averages under 1% growth.

The board said it would monitor the trend and use the revised forecasts in upcoming staffing and capacity planning.