WASDE: Argentina's big wheat crop and record Brazil soy raise global supplies; strong U.S. corn exports tighten U.S. stocks

The World Agricultural Outlook Board's February WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) briefing made modest revisions across major commodity balance sheets while flagging several country‑level developments that influenced global supplies and trade, WAOB Chair Mark Jekanowski said.

On wheat, Jekanowski said global production remains record‑large overall but a notably large Argentine harvest raised Argentina's production by roughly 9.3 million tons year over year. That increase led WAOB to raise global trade by about 2.2 million tons and to raise Argentina's export forecast by 2.0 million tons to about 18.0 million tons, which the agency said is weighing on Argentine prices.

Rice changes were small and country specific: global rice trade was trimmed by roughly 200,000 tons mainly because of lower exports from Thailand, while the U.S. saw a small increase in ending stocks driven by slower long‑grain imports and higher medium/short‑grain sales to Japan.

Corn saw stronger U.S. export activity. Jekanowski said global trade for corn was raised by about 1.4 million tons—driven mainly by U.S. shipments and partially offset by lower exports from Ukraine (Ukraine corn exports were lowered about 1.0 million tons to 22.0 million tons because of logistics and infrastructure damage). Robust U.S. sales and shipments tightened U.S. corn ending stocks by roughly 100 million bushels; WAOB made no change to the U.S. season‑average corn price this month.

Global soybean production was raised by about 2.5 million metric tons, concentrated in Brazil and Paraguay. Brazil's crop was described as record large—area, yield and production are all forecast to reach records—pushing global ending stocks up modestly. Global crush was increased about 1.6 million tons, reflecting stronger processing in Brazil and Paraguay, and U.S. domestic soybean balances were unchanged, leaving the U.S. season‑average soybean price at $10.20 per bushel.

On vegetable oils, Jekanowski highlighted strong palm oil output in Malaysia, with October–December production running about 23 percent above last year and roughly 26 percent above the five‑year average for December; WAOB raised Malaysian palm production by about 3 percent from last month.

Cotton forecasts were nudged higher for China on classing data from Xinjiang, increasing China's forecast about 0.5 million bales to 35.0 million bales; global cotton consumption was trimmed slightly.

WAOB also reported a data correction in the sugar series: a back‑year adjustment reduced reported domestic deliveries by about 187,000 short tons after USDA staff identified a refiner that had been reporting shipments to other refiners as domestic deliveries. For the 2025/26 crop year, cane production was raised about 29,000 short tons (mainly in Louisiana), some TRQ and other import categories were revised and U.S. ending sugar stocks were up by about 17,000 short tons overall.

In meat and livestock, WAOB finalized 2025 production numbers and adjusted 2026 forecasts: beef production for 2026 was raised about 190 million pounds reflecting cattle placements in feedlots, pork exports were raised roughly 50 million pounds and several small adjustments were made for broilers and turkey. For dairy, 2026 milk output was raised about 300 million pounds driven by higher output per cow; WAOB set the 2026 all‑milk price forecast at $18.95 per hundredweight (the 2025 all‑milk price was finalized at about $20.26).

"Most February WASDE changes this month are relatively minor across most of the commodities," Jekanowski said. He reiterated that the report is intended to reflect the official estimates and that audience members should refer to published tables for formal numbers.

The briefing closed after WAOB offered to take questions and thanked livestream viewers.