Joint Fiscal Office: January shows near-target gas receipts but motor-vehicle fees lag

Logan Moberry of the Joint Fiscal Office told the House Transportation Committee on Feb. 10 that January transportation revenue overall was slightly below the forecast and urged members to review month-by-month and 12-month trends rather than react to single-month swings. "Oh, for the record, I am Logan Moberry with the joint fiscal office," he said as he began a walkthrough of the office's monthly revenue reports.

Moberry said the JFO posts both a one-page summary and a full-detail spreadsheet on the General Assembly/JFO web site under the "transportation" subject (the monthly data listing showed about 235 entries). The summary shows monthly actuals and targets on the left and cumulative year-to-date totals on the right; Moberry recommended focusing on year-to-date and 12-month comparisons because single-month figures can be noisy.

On the January numbers, Moberry reported that gasoline collections were roughly in line with the forecast ("Gas, 2.4%, which is pretty close to on target"), and diesel receipts were stronger, while purchase-and-use tax receipts and motor-vehicle fees were below the target. Overall, he said the month was about 2% below the forecasted total. He also explained that the forecast was updated in January, which means there is only one month of data against the new target and comparisons should be treated cautiously.

Committee members pressed for thresholds that would trigger concern. One member asked how predictable motor-vehicle fees should be and at what point a deviation would suggest an operational problem rather than routine variation. Moberry replied that he watches trends continuously and that he would generally dig in once multi-month deviations appear; single-month swings are often due to reporting timing or end-of-year accounting adjustments.

Representative Gonzales raised an on-the-ground observation, saying, "I will say that I've now seen, 3 plates, 3 white plates on the back of vehicles that are, wicked, expired," as a possible contributor to lower registration-related receipts. Moberry said the DMV should be able to provide a more granular breakdown of the revenue by source if the committee wants to separate registrations, renewals and other fee types.

The committee and Moberry also discussed longer-term trends in fuel consumption. Moberry showed historical charts indicating a peak in gasoline consumption in the early 2000s and a notable decline after COVID. He said most estimates attribute much of the decline in gallons consumed to vehicle efficiency improvements (and some EV adoption), and that miles driven has not clearly fallen by a similar magnitude. "Most estimates say that gallons consumed will continue to decrease," he said.

Members noted the policy tension this creates: policies that reduce fuel use (efficiency standards, electrification, travel demand reductions) also shrink the gasoline tax base that funds the Transportation Fund (T Fund), contributing to recurring pressure on transportation budgets. Moberry and members suggested further analysis—drawing on DMV breakdowns and an external report (referred to in the discussion as a DNB report)—to separate reporting noise from structural changes in revenue trends.

Next steps recorded in the discussion: the JFO will keep posting monthly detail and can provide deeper breakdowns on request; members indicated they want follow-up with agency data and external analyses before considering budget or revenue adjustments. The committee paused for a short break and did not take any formal votes during this segment.