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MassHealth warns federal Medicaid changes could cut about $3.5 billion; state adds funding to limit premium shocks

Massachusetts Commission on the Status of Persons with Disabilities — Long Term Services and Supports and Health Equity Subcommittee · January 26, 2026
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Summary

MassHealth told the Commission subcommittee it expects roughly $3.5 billion in aggregate federal revenue losses through 2028 from a recently passed federal bill; the agency flagged work requirements, more frequent redeterminations and shorter retroactive coverage windows and described state steps (including $250 million in state funds to offset premium tax credit losses) to limit coverage losses.

MassHealth officials told the Commission subcommittee that a federal reconciliation bill passed about six months ago will significantly change Medicaid funding dynamics and eligibility rules, and that Massachusetts is preparing near‑term administrative steps and targeted fiscal measures to blunt the impact.

Leslie Darcy, MassHealth chief of LTSS, said MassHealth currently projects a roughly $3.5 billion cumulative revenue impact to the Commonwealth through January 2028 because of changes including limits on states’ ability to tax health plans and providers and restrictions on payments supporting hospitals. “Between now and essentially, you know, January 2028, we are expecting that the Commonwealth will lose approximately $3,500,000,000 in the aggregate,” Darcy said.

Darcy outlined several provisions with near‑term implementation dates: an Oct. 2026 change in the federal definition of certain immigrants eligible for Medicaid (affecting refugees, asylees and parolees); work requirements that kick in Jan. 2027 for some non‑disabled adults ages 19–64 (people must demonstrate 80 hours per month of work or volunteer activity or qualify for specified exceptions for pregnancy, caregivers of children under 14, medically frail people, or people in substance use treatment); and a new six‑month redetermination cadence for certain adults starting Jan. 2027. She added that MassHealth will try to auto‑renew eligibility using available electronic databases to reduce disruptions.

Darcy also said MassHealth’s authority to approve retroactive coverage will be shortened beginning Jan. 2027 (from three months previously to one month for ACA‑expansion adults and two months for others), which could affect coverage for care received before enrollment.

On affordability, Darcy described the federal decision not to fully fund enhanced premium tax credits (APTCs). Massachusetts used state law authority to allocate $250 million in state dollars this year to reduce premium increases for middle‑income families; combined with other measures, she said the program’s total cost is about $600 million. Darcy provided an example: without state action a family of four making about $75,000 could have seen premiums rise to $452 per month, versus about $206 with the state intervention.

Commissioners pressed MassHealth on hospital and safety‑net impacts. Darcy said the Health Safety Net has an underfunding shortfall of roughly $300 million this year and that reductions in coverage would increase uncompensated care demands on community hospitals. She warned that while the federal government may not mandate that states move services into waivers, the funding changes will create pressure on states to consider trade‑offs and program adjustments to maintain services with fewer federal dollars.

Darcy said MassHealth anticipates making targeted reductions and one‑time budget measures in FY27 while working with advocates and the Legislature to design deeper changes for FY28.