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UNC Charlotte study estimates $466 million annual cost of gun violence in Fayetteville; researchers urge prevention investment
Summary
A mixed‑methods UNC Charlotte/Urban Institute study released Feb. 9 estimated that firearm violence cost Fayetteville about $466 million in 2024 (including criminal justice, medical, productivity and quality‑of‑life costs). Researchers found violent incidents declined overall from 2022–2024 and recommended prevention investments targeted to young adults and community‑led programs.
FAYETTEVILLE, N.C. — A research team led by UNC Charlotte presented a mixed‑methods study to Fayetteville City Council on Feb. 9 that estimated the local economic cost of gun violence at roughly $466 million for 2024 and urged the city to rebalance spending from reaction to prevention.
Dr. Eric Moore and colleagues reported that, using administrative and public data, the city experienced a modest overall decline in gun‑related incidents from 2022 through 2024, with violent firearm incidents falling by about 40 percent in the period analyzed. However, when researchers compared ShotSpotter‑monitored neighborhoods to statistically matched tracts, they found no statistically significant difference — suggesting those hot‑spot areas are not outliers when compared with similar neighborhoods.
Cost estimate: Dr. Jenny Hutchinson explained the team’s costing methodology, which applies validated proxy values to local counts of incidents. The study breaks costs into criminal justice ($37 million), medical expenses (about $9 million), employer productivity losses (nearly $300,000) and a large quality‑of‑life valuation (about $419 million), producing a total estimate of roughly $466 million for 2024. The quality‑of‑life component, which uses widely accepted economic models to value intangible harms associated with homicide and injury, accounts for the largest share.
Community perspectives and recommendations: Researchers held focus groups in Cliffdale, Murchison and Massey Hill neighborhoods and heard consistent themes: concerns about disinvestment, youth development gaps, widespread firearm access, and a desire for community‑led prevention and improved police‑community engagement. The report recommends more precise data recording (intent and victim/offender relationships), expanded prevention strategies beyond ShotSpotter areas, targeted investments for young adults (ages 18–24), and community‑led gun safety and youth‑development programs.
Council reaction: Councilmembers praised the study’s scope and urged the city to examine budget priorities so that prevention programs receive sustained funding. The Office of Community Safety said the study would inform upcoming budget and policy discussions.
