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District forecast: North Clackamas enrollment likely to decline modestly over 10 years, Flow Analytics says
Summary
A Flow Analytics demographer told the North Clackamas board that demographic trends, smaller recent birth cohorts and housing patterns point to a modest district‑wide enrollment decline from about 16,539 (2025) to roughly 15,664 over ten years under the middle scenario; one‑year forecast error was reported near 0.6%.
At the Feb. 12 meeting, Alex Brash of Flow Analytics presented NCSD’s 10‑year enrollment forecast, describing methods and implications for facilities and planning.
Brash said the team uses historical October headcount, demographic trends (including births and women of childbearing age), and residential development data from Metro’s parcel records to estimate student yield by housing type. He highlighted that North Clackamas’s proportion of residents aged 0–18 has fallen from…
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