Mercer Island board reviews enrollment outlook, discusses new demographic study amid levy win

District staff told the Mercer Island School District board on Feb. 12 that declining birth rates and current funding formulas mean the district should expect lower student full‑time‑equivalent (FTE) counts over the next several years, and the board discussed hiring demographers to refine long‑range projections.

"Birth rates have been declining since 2016," said District staff (S3), summarizing statewide trends shown in the presentation. Staff said those trends create a stair‑step decline in incoming kindergarten cohorts and that the district’s preliminary FTE projection for the next year is about 3,680 (staff also discussed alternate headcount estimates and the effect of Running Start students on FTE funding).

Staff explained that Running Start funding is calculated as 7 percent of the Basic Education Allocation (BEA) for Running Start FTE, which reduces the state funding the district receives for students who take college courses. "That 7% does not cover the fixed overhead—buses, counselors, utilities—so we back those numbers out when budgeting," District staff (S1) said.

Board members asked staff to bring a focused study session on elementary enrollment and long‑range planning after several elementary schools fell near 350–400 students. Board member (S2) asked for a study specifically addressing elementary school long‑range enrollment, and staff said the topic will be included in rescheduled study sessions.

The board also discussed commissioning updated demographic work. Staff described prior use of two firms (Davis Demographics and EDS) and said a new study typically runs about $36,000. "Demographers give us high, medium and low projections and help with facility‑planning and bond timing," District staff (S3) said. Board members agreed the work is useful for long‑range facility and budget decisions and asked staff to return with timing and procurement options.

The presentation also previewed an upcoming public budget webinar and outreach materials the district will post to help the community understand how enrollment affects funding and programs. Staff framed the long‑range enrollment strategy as "attract, retain, return"—actions to bring new families, keep current families, and re‑engage families who have left.

Next steps: the board asked staff to schedule a study session on enrollment and to return with recommendations for a demographic contract and cost estimates for board consideration.