Witness Says Reimposing Sanctions Risks Pushing Syria Toward Russia and Renewed Violence
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Summary
At a hearing of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, a witness warned that reimposing sanctions on Syria could push the country toward Russia and China, scare off Western and Middle Eastern investment, and risk renewed violence by further fragmenting state authority.
A questioner asked whether reimposing sanctions on Syria now would risk "driving Syria into the hands of Vladimir Putin and the Russians" and whether such measures would deter investment needed for reconstruction from Middle Eastern and Western countries.
Respondent said the empirical record shows sanctioned countries that are strong enough often "bandwagon and will hedge against us and try to find other patrons," using Russia as a backdoor. "That's how Russia has a backdoor to get in here," the respondent said.
The witness acknowledged differing perspectives among experts, saying they were "maybe a little more optimistic than Anna," but added that many Syrians the witness knows do not see a lasting Russian role in a future Syria. The witness cautioned that if sanctions scare off potential investors — including Turkey and other Middle Eastern partners — Syria ‘‘is going to look for Chinese money and for Russian managerial or military support,’’ shifting reconstruction away from Western influence.
The witness also cited a second empirical finding: imposing coercive measures on an already fractured state can further undermine centralized authority and state legitimacy. "When you take a country that's already sort of fractured and then you further undercut the sole basis for centralized power and the restoration of state legitimacy and sovereignty that we have right now, which is Ahmed al Sheera ... you induce huge new variables that lead to centripetal forces and then renewed violence," the witness said, warning that such dynamics could return Syria to prolonged fragmentation "as we had for over 15 years."
The transcript records this exchange but does not record any formal decision, motion, or vote on sanctions policy.
The hearing excerpt captures a policy trade-off: proponents of sanctions argue coercion can produce compliance, while the witness cautioned that sanctions risk pushing Syria toward alternative patrons and reigniting internal violence, with potential consequences for who controls reconstruction and security.