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Consultant: San Rafael’s sales tax base strong but concentrated; e-commerce and fulfillment rules complicate growth
Summary
Consultant Ken Nordhoff told the Economic Development Subcommittee that San Rafael’s 9.25% sales-tax rate and local measures produce substantial revenue but leave the city dependent on autos, construction and a handful of large taxpayers; e-commerce allocations and state rules limit local control and suggest different strategic trade-offs.
Ken Nordhoff, a consultant with HDL, told the San Rafael Economic Development Subcommittee on Dec. 1, 2025, that the city’s sales-tax position is solid on a per-capita basis but exposed to sector concentration and the complexities of online sales allocation.
Nordhoff opened with a simple baseline: “Your tax rate down here is 9.25%,” pointing out that the total combines the 7.25% statewide base with locally voter-approved measures such as Measure E and Measure R. He said the city is at the statutory cap for local rate increases absent new state authority.
Why that matters: a large share of San Rafael’s receipts come from a few sectors—Nordhoff said the auto group accounted for about 30% of Bradley-Burns revenue in the most recent fiscal year, while building- and…
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