San Marcos Unified warns of multi‑million dollar budget gap as enrollment falls; preliminary layoff notices planned

SAN MARCOS, Calif. — San Marcos Unified School District officials told the governing board on Feb. 12 that the district faces a multi‑year structural budget gap driven by declining enrollment and cost pressures, and outlined actions that may include preliminary layoff notices this spring.

At a lengthy presentation, Aaron Garcia said county‑ and state‑level projections show continued declines in TK–12 enrollment that have begun to erode district revenue. "Our declining enrollment has reached a level that can no longer be ignored and requires us to make some very difficult decisions in the near future," Garcia said in his presentation (declining enrollment briefing).

Why it matters: California funds districts largely on average daily attendance. Garcia illustrated that even modest drops in student numbers reduce LCFF revenue while many fixed costs — pensions, health benefits and insurance premiums — continue to rise. He said the current per‑pupil rate is roughly $12,687 and projected that losing about 300 students next year would reduce revenue by approximately $3.6 million. "If those 300 students were in 'perfect packages' you could reduce 12 teachers, but that still leaves more than $2 million to address," he said.

What the district proposed: Garcia reviewed a package of proposed reductions already implemented and under consideration, including: district‑office travel and nonessential services, a 30% cut to supplies, reorganizations in the superintendent's and business offices, reductions to some assistant principal and non‑classroom certificated positions, and program adjustments that would save more than $2 million. He also noted planned reductions due to expiration of grant funding (two classified and 14 certificated positions).

Timing and statutory requirements: Garcia told trustees that California timelines require districts to issue preliminary layoff notices by March 15 if they plan layoffs; accordingly, he said the district will bring a layoff resolution at a special board meeting on Feb. 26. Final notices could be served in May depending on the May revision to the governor's budget and the July fiscal close.

Financial context: Garcia cited outside sources — FCMAT and recent reporting by Voice of San Diego — showing county and statewide declines, and noted local mitigations such as development that has partially offset losses. He also highlighted sharp increases in some district costs: health‑benefit and property/liability premiums (including AB 218 assessments tied to expanded statutes of limitation for abuse claims), and utility volatility — although he noted district investments in LEDs, solar and electric buses have helped control some energy costs.

Board response and next steps: Trustees repeatedly emphasized the desire to avoid frontline cuts where possible and asked staff to consider alternatives and communications plans for affected employees and families. Superintendent Johnson and business staff said they will return with resolutions and additional detail at the Feb. 26 special meeting and continue community outreach before any final actions. "We have some reserves and time to make thoughtful decisions," Garcia said, "but early action is critical."

The board did not take action on layoffs during the Feb. 12 meeting; district staff will present a layoff resolution Feb. 26 as a preliminary step required by statute.