San Rafael feasibility study finds three costly, complex paths to reduce bay flooding; committee urged to act now

San Rafael’s Sea Level Rise Committee heard a consultant feasibility report on Dec. 9 that concluded there are no easy fixes for the city’s low‑lying waterfront: the report evaluates three major strategies—shoreline barriers, a gated canal with large pumps, and large‑scale bayfront fill and elevation—and finds each to be costly, technically difficult and dependent on long timelines.

The consultant presentation, introduced at the committee meeting and discussed by the presenter identified in the meeting as Kate, framed the challenge bluntly: “It’s not a safe situation,” the presenter said, and warned that “in 25 years, there’s about a 1 in 5 chance of a catastrophic flood.” The consultant compared each option to a no‑action scenario and emphasized that even the fastest project timelines run into the 2040s while risks are increasing.

Why it matters: San Rafael’s downtown and many homes sit lower than the bay. The study found that any effective barrier must be continuous and complete; gaps or partial systems will be bypassed by water. Because much of the canal and waterfront is privately owned, the study flagged ownership and acquisition as major…