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Oregon City treasurer warns five-year forecast could show reduced state aid under fair funding formula
Summary
The district's treasurer presented a five-year forecast showing a potential negative cash position in the final year and warned that unusually high property valuations could lower state aid under Ohio's fair school funding formula, even as local reserves remain strong.
The Oregon City Schools treasurer presented the district's annual five-year forecast on Nov. 19, saying current trends show the district spending more than it takes in and forecasting a negative cash balance in the last year of the model even though the district maintains strong cash balances.
The treasurer told the board she used a planning assumption of no general salary increases (only step movements) and projected residential valuation increases of 30% and commercial increases of 10%. She said public utility growth is modeled conservatively at 1%, and benefits assumptions include a 10% rise in medical insurance the first forecast year and smaller increases thereafter.
Board members asked when county valuation and effective millage figures would be available; the treasurer said she has been promised the data but had not yet received the certified valuation numbers from Lucas County and expected them by late November or January for effective millage. The lack of certified values complicates forecasting, she said.
The treasurer highlighted a risk specific to the state's fair school funding formula: if local property valuations rise sharply, the district's local capacity increases and could reduce its state aid allocation. "This could potentially bring our state aid down," she said, urging trustees to treat the forecast as a planning tool and not a definitive prediction.
Trustees and the superintendent discussed broader state-level pressures, including legislative proposals to reduce property taxes and expand vouchers. One trustee expressed concern that some voucher funding to private and charter schools lacks auditing and could be spent without the same oversight required of public districts.
The board approved the treasurer's report by roll call. The treasurer said district staff will revisit the forecast once county valuation data and other updated inputs arrive and that a finance committee will meet after those updates are available.
