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Gardner Institute: Utah leads U.S. growth but national headwinds and tariffs cloud Salt Lake City revenues
Summary
Natalie Goughner of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute told the Salt Lake City Council the state led the nation in 2024 GDP growth (~4.5%) and the city is seeing an estimated 4% population rise, but policy uncertainty, tariffs and a downturn in the visitor economy pose risks to sales-tax–dependent revenues.
Natalie Goughner, director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, told the Salt Lake City Council on May 13 that Utah led the nation in GDP growth for 2024 at about 4.5 percent while the U.S. averaged about 2.8 percent. She said provisional Gardner Institute estimates put Salt Lake City’s population just over 220,000 with about a 4% growth rate from 2023 to 2024, and noted nearly one-quarter of statewide jobs are in the city.
Goughner highlighted strengths — a well‑trained workforce, household incomes high on a cost‑of‑living–adjusted basis, and public‑private investments in the downtown core — but she emphasized several downside risks. She described tariffs and rising policy uncertainty as “a tax on trade” that reduces efficiency and growth, and pointed to sectoral weakness in leisure and hospitality: recent forecasts for tourism have swung from strong growth to contractions, which she said could materially affect city sales-tax and hotel‑tax receipts.
Council members pressing on budget impacts noted the mayor’s budget relies in part on sales‑tax receipts; one member reminded colleagues that roughly 42% of the general fund is sourced from sales tax. Goughner cautioned that sales tax is cyclical and therefore more volatile than property tax and recommended that council planning emphasize diversified revenue assumptions, conservative budgeting and stronger coordination with state leaders.
On housing and workforce, Goughner recommended investing in education and family supports and flagged research (Opportunity Insights partnership) suggesting socioeconomic integration — including how housing vouchers are used — can improve upward mobility. She did not propose specific local ordinances but urged the council to align planning and workforce investments with long‑term economic resilience.
The presentation closed with Goughner advising sustained investment in downtown amenities — transit, sports and cultural assets — while hedging against the risk that national policy uncertainty could reduce visitor volumes and discretionary sales.
Next steps: Council members said they would use the forecast to test revenue assumptions in the FY2026 budget deliberations and to consider contingency planning for sales‑tax volatility.
